NOSaints
5-4
19
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
027
MINVikings
5-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
0
8
8
19
Vikings
3
21
3
0
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
388
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.01
Passing Yards
215
263
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.24
Rushing Yards
69
125
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.34
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-4.30
-1.83
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
74
35
Penalty EPA
-7.91
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.3%
Spread Pick
Vikings+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+43.8
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-73.1
Home QB Adjustment
-67.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.9
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
-36.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-67.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
6
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
17
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
29
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U