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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ vikings week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
5-4
19
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
27
MINVikings
5-4
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
0
8
8
19
Vikings
3
21
3
0
27

Spread

MIN logo
+3

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
284
388
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.01
Passing Yards
215
263
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.24
Rushing Yards
69
125
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.34
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-4.30
-1.83
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
74
35
Penalty EPA
-7.91
-6.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.3%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+44.2
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-73.2
Home QB Adjustment
-67.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
-36.6
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
12/24
-8.8
4
09/10
-1.7
39
09/18
-7.7
9
09/24
-3.8
25
10/01
-5.1
19
10/08
1.8
61
10/15
1.5
59
10/19
0.4
52
10/29
4.7
79
11/05
3.0
70
R. Dobbs headshot

R. Dobbs

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-67.2
Value
Ptile
12/29
-2.4
33
01/07
-4.1
23
09/10
-5.1
19
09/17
7.3
92
09/24
5.1
82
10/01
7.2
92
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-2.6
32
10/22
-2.6
32
10/29
2.2
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6

EPA

EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
22
6
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22

EPA

EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
17
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
29
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-3
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/24
-1
L
L
U
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
34
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
L
U
10/19
-7
L
L
O
10/29
11
W
W
O
11/05
7
W
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
-7
L
L
O
09/10
-3
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
P
O
09/24
-4
L
L
U
10/01
8
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/23
5
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
O