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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 1, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
-
17
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
15 mph
33
SF49ers
-
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
7
10
17
49ers
0
16
0
11
27

Spread

SF logo
-6

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
219
209
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
3.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
155
--
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
64
85
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
9
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
33%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.43
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-15.76
--
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
72
102
Penalty EPA
-15.07
-10.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Jackson headshot

T. Jackson

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
12/17
-4.0
25
12/23
4.8
81
12/30
0.8
56
09/08
0.7
57
09/14
-3.5
25
12/14
1.7
63
12/21
6.4
88
12/28
-0.8
46
01/04
-3.7
24
12/13
-8.8
6
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.8
13
09/20
3.9
75
09/26
-5.8
14
10/03
-2.5
32
10/10
4.3
78
10/17
-1.6
40
10/24
-1.2
42
12/12
4.4
78
12/16
-6.5
11
01/02
2.4
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
27
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
21
4
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15

EPA

EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
17
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
30
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
18
W
W
O
11/21
-15
L
L
O
11/28
-18
L
L
O
12/05
17
W
W
O
12/12
-19
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
-23
L
L
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
01/08
5
W
W
O
01/16
-11
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/14
3
W
L
O
11/21
-21
L
L
U
11/29
21
W
W
U
12/05
-18
L
L
O
12/12
19
W
W
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/26
-8
L
L
O
01/02
31
W
W
O