SEASeahawks
-
17
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
15 mph
33
SF49ers
-
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
7
10
17
49ers
0
16
0
11
27
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
209
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
3.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
155
--
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.02
Rushing Yards
64
85
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
9
4
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
33%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.43
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-15.76
--
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
72
102
Penalty EPA
-15.07
-10.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Jackson
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
21
4
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
30
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U