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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-0
10
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
0
23
SF49ers
1-0
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
10
0
0
10
49ers
10
3
7
3
23

Spread

SF logo
-1

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
283
379
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
4.4
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.15
Passing Yards
217
123
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.03
Rushing Yards
66
256
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
8.8
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.95
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-21
Sack EPA
-1.97
-6.02
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
54
Penalty EPA
-6.43
-5.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.4
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
24.0
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Value
Ptile
01/05
-1.3
41
01/12
0.3
52
09/07
-8.8
4
09/14
-5.5
12
09/21
0.8
58
10/05
-5.0
15
11/16
-6.3
9
11/23
-4.9
17
11/27
-6.0
10
09/13
5.4
84
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
-2.3
35
11/10
-2.1
36
11/16
5.0
84
11/23
0.9
59
11/30
-2.8
29
12/07
4.2
79
12/14
-1.4
41
12/21
-4.4
19
12/28
4.5
81
09/13
-2.5
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6

EPA

EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
31
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
30
2
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
20
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
6
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-19
L
L
P
11/09
-2
L
W
P
11/16
-6
L
L
P
11/23
-3
L
P
P
11/27
-25
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
W
P
12/14
3
W
W
P
12/21
10
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-21
L
L
P
11/10
-5
L
W
P
11/16
19
W
W
P
11/23
-13
L
L
P
11/30
7
W
W
P
12/07
10
W
W
P
12/14
-5
L
W
P
12/21
1
W
L
P
12/28
3
W
W
P
09/13
4
W
W
U