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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
6-4
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
12 mph
13
SF49ers
1-9
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
7
7
10
24
49ers
0
3
3
7
13

Spread

SEA logo
-7

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
318
280
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
5.0
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
196
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.26
Rushing Yards
90
84
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.53
-3.78
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.36
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
74
Penalty EPA
-3.09
-7.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
+16.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-50.1
Home QB Adjustment
-25.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.1
24
09/17
-1.7
40
09/24
9.5
97
10/01
4.9
84
10/08
-3.1
30
10/22
8.4
94
10/29
10.7
98
11/05
2.2
68
11/09
0.3
54
11/20
6.7
90
C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-25.8
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
12
26
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20

EPA

EPA / Play
16
8
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
28
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-8
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
U
09/24
-6
L
L
O
10/01
28
W
W
O
10/08
6
W
W
U
10/22
17
W
W
U
10/29
3
W
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
P
U
11/20
-3
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U
11/12
10
W
W
O