SEASeahawks
6-4
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
12 mph
13
SF49ers
1-9
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
7
7
10
24
49ers
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
280
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
5.0
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
196
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.26
Rushing Yards
90
84
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.53
-3.78
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.36
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
74
Penalty EPA
-3.09
-7.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-148
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
+16.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-50.1
Home QB Adjustment
-25.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-25.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
12
26
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
8
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U