SEASeahawks
6-6
21
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
3 mph
40
SF49ers
4-8
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
0
7
7
21
49ers
10
20
4
0
34
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
336
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
277
241
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.33
Rushing Yards
84
95
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-26.51
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-4.87
-3.33
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-8.87
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
-89.9
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6
EPA
EPA / Play
22
13
EPA / Pass
24
18
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
20
17
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
26
9
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U