SEASeahawks
11-1
17
TBD
Candlestick Park
43°F
5 mph
19
SF49ers
8-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
43°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
14
0
3
17
49ers
6
10
0
3
19
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
318
Total Plays
50
64
Yards / Play
5.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.00
Passing Yards
178
155
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.04
Rushing Yards
86
163
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
+0.00
-3.62
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-4.39
-3.08
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
85
70
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,675
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.3
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
24.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
6
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U