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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
11-1
17
TBD
Candlestick Park
43°F
5 mph
19
SF49ers
8-4
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
43°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
14
0
3
17
49ers
6
10
0
3
19

Spread

SEA logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
264
318
Total Plays
50
64
Yards / Play
5.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.00
Passing Yards
178
155
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.04
Rushing Yards
86
163
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
+0.00
-3.62
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-4.39
-3.08
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
85
70
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-5.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,672
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.3
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
25.9
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Value
Ptile
09/22
2.9
70
09/29
-5.2
18
10/06
4.1
78
10/13
5.2
84
10/17
4.0
78
10/28
-6.0
14
11/03
3.9
76
11/10
5.8
85
11/17
2.8
69
12/02
11.2
97
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
14
6
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
16
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
28
W
W
O
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-6
L
L
O
10/13
7
W
L
U
10/17
12
W
W
O
10/28
5
W
L
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
23
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U