SEASeahawks
6-6
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
63°F
5 mph
28
SF49ers
9-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
63°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
10
0
6
0
16
49ers
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+14.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
527
Total Plays
56
53
Yards / Play
5.8
9.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
254
354
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
13.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.29
Rushing Yards
70
173
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
7.5
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
18%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-7.12
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-15
-14
Sack EPA
-7.09
-3.97
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-6.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+280
Home nfelo
1,718
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.9
Home QB Adjustment
+28.0
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
+81.3
Final Difference
341.2
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
26
11
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U