SEASeahawks
9-5
25
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
5 mph
23
SF49ers
2-13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
16
3
3
25
49ers
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+11.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
253
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.12
Passing Yards
289
191
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.20
Rushing Yards
87
62
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.31
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-11
-24
Sack EPA
-2.35
-5.79
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
34
25
Penalty EPA
-1.83
-2.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market83.2%
Model82.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-228
Home nfelo
1,334
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
-36.5
Final Difference
-267.7
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
21
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
26
28
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
29
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U