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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ bears week 6, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-2
23
TBD
Soldier Field
61°F
9 mph
20
CHIBears
4-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
61°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
7
0
7
21
Bears
7
6
0
1
14

Spread

SEA logo
+6

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
353
307
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
246
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
17/39(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.24
Rushing Yards
111
61
Rush Attempts
31
14
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
39%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-44
Sack EPA
--
-10.33
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-7.72
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
11/29
-3.2
30
12/06
2.0
64
12/13
-0.9
44
12/20
-4.8
21
12/27
-9.2
4
01/03
-5.8
15
09/12
4.5
80
09/19
-0.8
44
09/26
-2.2
35
10/03
-6.8
10
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
11/29
-4.4
22
12/06
-3.6
27
12/13
-1.4
40
12/20
-11.3
1
12/28
4.0
75
01/03
5.3
84
09/12
2.8
68
09/19
7.5
92
09/27
0.9
54
10/03
-14.9
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Seahawks logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
24
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bears logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21

EPA

EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
12
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
23
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
10
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
-27
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-38
L
L
O
01/03
-4
L
W
U
09/12
25
W
W
P
09/19
-17
L
L
O
09/26
7
W
W
O
10/03
-17
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
8
W
L
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/20
-24
L
L
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
5
W
L
U
09/19
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/10
17
W
W
U