SEASeahawks
2-2
23
TBD
Soldier Field
61°F
9 mph
20
CHIBears
4-1
TBD
Soldier Field
61°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
7
0
7
21
Bears
7
6
0
1
14
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
307
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
246
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
17/39(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.24
Rushing Yards
111
61
Rush Attempts
31
14
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
39%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-44
Sack EPA
--
-10.33
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-7.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U