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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ bears week 19, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
8-9
24
TBD
Soldier Field
24°F
4 mph
35
CHIBears
11-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
24°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
3
21
24
Bears
14
7
7
7
35

Spread

CHI logo
-10

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
276
437
Total Plays
60
77
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.14
Passing Yards
242
261
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.04
Rushing Yards
34
176
Rush Attempts
12
45
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
21%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.52
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-13
Sack EPA
-2.29
-3.86
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
20
71
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-8.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
55.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+360
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
304.4
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
10/24
-4.6
19
10/31
-13.8
1
11/14
4.4
79
11/21
10.6
98
11/28
-2.2
34
12/05
-5.3
16
12/12
-2.1
36
12/19
-8.5
6
12/26
-1.9
37
01/08
5.5
85
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Value
Ptile
10/24
-7.5
8
11/07
3.7
74
11/14
1.7
59
11/18
-3.6
25
11/28
5.0
83
12/05
0.2
50
12/12
-7.8
7
12/20
1.3
56
12/26
2.6
66
01/02
-10.2
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Seahawks logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
24
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bears logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21

EPA

EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
12
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
23
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-34
L
L
O
11/14
18
W
W
O
11/21
-15
L
L
O
11/28
-18
L
L
O
12/05
17
W
W
O
12/12
-19
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
-23
L
L
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
01/08
5
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-3
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U
11/18
16
W
W
U
11/28
5
W
W
O
12/05
4
W
L
O
12/12
-29
L
L
O
12/20
26
W
W
O
12/26
4
W
W
O
01/02
-7
L
W
U