SEASeahawks
8-9
24
TBD
Soldier Field
24°F
4 mph
35
CHIBears
11-5
TBD
Soldier Field
24°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
3
21
24
Bears
14
7
7
7
35
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
437
Total Plays
60
77
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.14
Passing Yards
242
261
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.04
Rushing Yards
34
176
Rush Attempts
12
45
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
21%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.52
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-13
Sack EPA
-2.29
-3.86
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
20
71
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-8.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
Bears-10.0
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
55.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+360
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
304.4
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U