SEASeahawks
3-1
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
15 mph
17
CINBengals
2-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
3
3
0
13
Bengals
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
214
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.03
Passing Yards
297
168
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.09
Rushing Yards
87
46
Rush Attempts
25
15
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.36
-3.32
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-29
-17
Sack EPA
-6.74
-4.50
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-9.00
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+32.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
22
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
12
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Bengals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U