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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ bengals week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
3-1
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
15 mph
17
CINBengals
2-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
3
3
0
13
Bengals
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

CIN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
384
214
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.03
Passing Yards
297
168
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.09
Rushing Yards
87
46
Rush Attempts
25
15
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.36
-3.32
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-29
-17
Sack EPA
-6.74
-4.50
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-9.00
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+32.8
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.3
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
12/11
-1.0
45
12/15
2.8
74
12/24
-3.1
27
01/01
-1.5
43
01/08
-1.7
41
01/14
2.7
73
09/10
-2.8
30
09/17
8.1
94
09/24
-1.2
42
10/02
-4.0
24
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Value
Ptile
12/24
8.1
93
01/08
-0.5
48
01/15
0.9
58
01/22
6.0
89
01/29
-5.0
17
09/10
-8.0
8
09/17
1.3
58
09/25
-5.0
20
10/01
-4.9
20
10/08
4.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Bengals Defense
Seahawks logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
22
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26

EPA

EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
12
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Bengals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bengals logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31

EPA

EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
15
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
10
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-6
L
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-14
L
L
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
3
W
L
U
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-17
L
L
U
09/17
6
W
W
O
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/02
21
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
4
W
W
U
01/08
11
W
P
O
01/15
7
W
L
O
01/22
17
W
W
U
01/29
-3
L
L
U
09/10
-21
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
P
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
14
W
W
O