SEASeahawks
6-1
34
TBD
New Era Field
69°F
4 mph
44
BUFBills
6-2
TBD
New Era Field
69°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
10
10
14
34
Bills
14
10
3
17
44
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
420
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
6.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.26
Passing Yards
362
386
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.43
Rushing Yards
57
34
Rush Attempts
17
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.52
--
Sacks
5
7
Sack Yards
-28
-29
Sack EPA
-12.70
-8.15
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-6.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
+31.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+31.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
16
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Bills Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
14
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
16
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
4
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
12
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U