SEASeahawks
8-5
50
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
017
BUFBills
5-8
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
14
17
10
3
44
Bills
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
466
333
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
8.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.26
Passing Yards
196
215
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.49
Rushing Yards
270
118
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
8.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.60
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.92
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-32
Sack EPA
-2.16
-11.04
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-3.88
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+27.7
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Bills Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U