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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ browns week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-3
3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
56°F
7 mph
6
CLEBrowns
2-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
56°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
3
0
3
Browns
0
3
0
3
6

Spread

SEA logo
CLE logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
137
298
Total Plays
50
84
Yards / Play
2.7
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.19
Passing Yards
69
159
Comp/Att
12/30(40%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.69
-0.08
Rushing Yards
68
139
Rush Attempts
16
45
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
9
20
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
17%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
24
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.71
-3.50
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-28
-19
Sack EPA
-9.08
-1.20
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
68
48
Penalty EPA
-6.79
-7.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Whitehurst headshot

C. Whitehurst

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.5
20
01/02
3.4
72
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
11/14
-0.7
44
11/21
-4.1
23
12/19
2.1
62
12/26
-5.8
13
01/02
-8.0
7
09/11
-2.3
35
09/18
2.2
67
09/25
-1.6
39
10/02
3.0
72
10/16
-0.8
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Browns Defense
Seahawks logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
27
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Browns Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Browns logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
29
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
15

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
24
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
29
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
-23
L
L
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
01/08
5
W
W
O
01/16
-11
L
L
O
09/11
-16
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-2
L
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/19
-2
L
L
U
12/26
-10
L
L
U
01/02
-32
L
L
O
09/11
-10
L
L
O
09/18
8
W
W
O
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-18
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
U