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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ buccaneers week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
7-2
5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
6 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
5-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
0
3
Buccaneers
14
0
0
0
14

Spread

TB logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
245
338
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
4.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.15
Passing Yards
118
--
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.73
+0.25
Rushing Yards
127
118
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
9%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.14
-8.14
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-33
--
Sack EPA
-8.66
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
27
68
Penalty EPA
-3.40
-8.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.4
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Value
Ptile
09/11
-1.7
35
09/18
-1.0
41
09/25
0.1
49
10/02
5.3
83
10/16
0.2
51
10/23
0.0
49
10/30
-2.7
28
11/07
5.0
83
11/13
5.5
84
11/20
1.9
64
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86
10/02
-8.3
4
10/10
-0.7
43
10/23
2.5
68
10/30
-1.9
35
11/03
2.9
71
11/13
0.0
49
11/20
4.5
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Seahawks logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
21
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
16
Interceptions / Game
15
4
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Buccaneers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6

EPA

EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
21
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
2
W
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
U
09/25
19
W
W
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
0
T
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O
10/02
-20
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-15
L
L
O
11/13
26
W
W
O
11/20
2
W
W
U