SEASeahawks
6-8
15
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
49°F
16 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
8-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
49°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
0
0
8
15
Buccaneers
3
14
14
7
38
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
176
439
Total Plays
54
56
Yards / Play
3.3
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.42
Passing Yards
86
231
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.57
Rushing Yards
90
208
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
3.2
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-6
-21
Sack EPA
-3.78
-3.81
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+23.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
29
21
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
9
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U