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nfelo...
predictions...
seahawks @ cardinals week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread

Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo

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SEASeahawks

-

16

TBD

State Farm Stadium

70°F

0

20

ARICardinals

-

TBD

State Farm Stadium

70°F

0

Game Summary

Scoring

1

2

3

4

Total

Seahawks

3

0

10

3

16

Cardinals

3

7

3

7

20

Spread

+3

Total

UNDER

40.5

Game Statistics

General

Total Yards

254

253

Total Plays

70

57

Yards / Play

3.6

4.4

EPA / Play

-0.16

-0.17

Passing Yards

139

210

Comp/Att

18/34(53%)

20/36(56%)

Yards / Pass

4.1

5.8

EPA / Pass

-0.16

-0.04

Rushing Yards

115

43

Rush Attempts

33

20

Yards / Rush

3.5

2.1

EPA / Rush

-0.29

-0.44

Downs & Conversions

1st Downs

18

18

Passing 1st downs

9

13

Rushing 1st downs

5

2

Penalty 1st downs

4

3

3rd Down %

31%

30%

3rd Down Conversions

5

3

3rd Down Attempts

16

10

Red Zone %

25%

50%

Red Zone Conversions

1

2

Red Zone Attempts

4

4

Negative Plays

Turnovers

2

2

Interceptions

1

1

Fumbles

1

1

Turnover EPA

-6.04

-9.24

Sacks

3

1

Sack Yards

-14

-5

Sack EPA

-3.80

-1.35

Penalties

13

10

Penalty Yards

90

102

Penalty EPA

-13.04

-12.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner

SEASeahawksFavored

Opening

N/A

Current

-3.0

Model

-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%

Model51.8%

Spread Pick

Cardinals+3.0

Projected +EV

Expected Value

+8.7%

Cover Probability

53.5%

Projection Detail

nfelo Difference

+32

Home nfelo

1,434

Away nfelo

1,443

Home Field

+56.1

Base HFA

+62.5

Divisional Adj

-28.2

Home Bye Adj

--

Away Bye Adj

--

Surface Adj

+21.8

Time Adj

--

Net QB Adjustment

-14.8

Home QB Adjustment

-17.2

Away QB Adjustment

-2.5

Market Regression

-19.4

Final Difference

-12.8

Model Spread

+1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson

Proj. Value

+0.2

Team Elo Adj

-2.5

No recent game data available

J. Skelton

Proj. Value

-4.6

Team Elo Adj

-17.2

Value

Ptile

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense

Total

Points / Game

10

17

Yards / Game

14

11

Passing Yards / Game

23

15

Rushing Yards / Game

4

28

EPA

EPA / Play

2

2

EPA / Pass

4

2

EPA / Rush

5

8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

11

1

Interceptions / Game

5

2

Fumbles / Game

22

12

Turnover EPA / Game

31

26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

12

3

4th Down Efficiency

12

13

RZ Efficiency

15

3

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Total

Points / Game

31

1

Yards / Game

32

3

Passing Yards / Game

18

2

Rushing Yards / Game

32

11

EPA

EPA / Play

32

5

EPA / Pass

32

5

EPA / Rush

32

24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game

20

18

Interceptions / Game

32

6

Fumbles / Game

25

19

Turnover EPA / Game

6

25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency

32

21

4th Down Efficiency

22

2

RZ Efficiency

31

6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Seahawks

5-5

SU

6-4

ATS

7-3

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U

Cardinals

7-3

SU

7-3

ATS

4-5-1

O/U

Margin

W/L

ATS

O/U