SEASeahawks
6-3
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
21°F
8 mph
24
KCChiefs
6-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
21°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
13
7
0
20
Chiefs
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
0
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
298
Total Plays
71
46
Yards / Play
5.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.10
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
11/16(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.08
Rushing Yards
204
190
Rush Attempts
37
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
14
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
6
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.47
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.16
--
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
50
6
Penalty EPA
-7.86
-2.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model47.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
1
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U