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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ chiefs week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
6-3
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
21°F
8 mph
24
KCChiefs
6-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
21°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
13
7
0
20
Chiefs
7
7
3
7
24

Spread

KC logo
0

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
372
298
Total Plays
71
46
Yards / Play
5.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.10
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
11/16(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.08
Rushing Yards
204
190
Rush Attempts
37
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
14
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
6
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.47
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.16
--
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
50
6
Penalty EPA
-7.86
-2.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
14.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
02/02
5.7
85
09/04
3.3
72
09/14
1.9
64
09/21
2.0
66
10/06
10.7
98
10/12
-6.0
15
10/19
11.6
98
10/26
-0.6
46
11/02
-4.3
24
11/09
1.1
57
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
01/04
12.7
99
09/07
-7.8
8
09/14
1.4
60
09/21
1.6
62
09/29
6.0
86
10/05
-2.2
34
10/19
0.5
52
10/26
1.7
63
11/02
1.8
64
11/09
-2.8
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Seahawks logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28

EPA

EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
1
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Chiefs logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4

EPA

EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
4
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
9
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/02
35
W
W
O
09/04
20
W
W
O
09/14
-9
L
L
O
09/21
6
W
W
U
10/06
10
W
W
U
10/12
-7
L
L
O
10/19
-2
L
L
O
10/26
4
W
L
U
11/02
6
W
L
O
11/09
21
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
-1
L
L
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-7
L
W
U
09/21
19
W
W
O
09/29
27
W
W
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/19
3
W
W
U
10/26
27
W
W
U
11/02
14
W
W
U
11/09
4
W
W
U