SEASeahawks
4-0
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
034
INDColts
3-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
10
7
9
0
26
Colts
7
4
6
11
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
319
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
6.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.15
Passing Yards
205
210
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.09
Rushing Yards
218
109
Rush Attempts
34
29
Yards / Rush
6.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
17%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.33
-6.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-5
-21
Sack EPA
-0.95
-7.32
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
85
35
Penalty EPA
-9.24
-2.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,672
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
21
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
27
Interceptions / Game
2
21
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Colts Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
6
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U