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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ commanders week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-1
27
TBD
FedExField
67°F
4 mph
17
WASCommanders
1-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
67°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
10
0
10
27
Commanders
0
7
3
7
17

Spread

SEA logo
-7

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
403
307
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.02
Passing Yards
178
275
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.17
Rushing Yards
225
32
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
6.3
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
20
14
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-8
Sack EPA
-4.37
-1.60
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
90
--
Penalty EPA
-10.28
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model76.7%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-242
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,666
Home Field
+2.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-47.1
Home QB Adjustment
-40.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-206.7
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
12/08
-2.0
39
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
-7.1
10
12/29
-4.0
24
01/11
-6.0
14
01/19
-2.4
36
02/02
5.7
85
09/04
3.3
72
09/14
1.9
64
09/21
2.0
66
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-40.9
Value
Ptile
12/16
5.9
86
12/15
3.9
77
12/22
-2.6
35
12/29
-12.9
1
09/21
8.4
92
09/25
-6.3
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12

EPA

EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
1
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
2
Interceptions / Game
5
28
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
19
15
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Commanders logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4

EPA

EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
27
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-2
L
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
U
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
U
01/11
8
W
L
U
01/19
6
W
W
P
02/02
35
W
W
O
09/04
20
W
W
O
09/14
-9
L
L
O
09/21
6
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-21
L
L
U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
W
O
12/22
-1
L
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/21
-3
L
W
O
09/25
-31
L
L
O