nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ commanders week 9, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SEA logo
SEASeahawks
5-2
38
TBD
FedExField
53°F
3 mph
14
WASCommanders
3-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
53°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
24
7
0
38
Commanders
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

SEA logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
418
290
Total Plays
48
62
Yards / Play
8.7
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.45
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
133
Comp/Att
21/24(88%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.94
-0.06
Rushing Yards
88
157
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
64%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.98
-7.84
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.82
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
44
87
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-9.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+1.4
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-22.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
12/29
7.9
92
01/05
-8.0
5
01/13
-8.9
4
09/07
-1.3
40
09/14
-0.4
47
09/21
3.7
76
09/25
0.4
54
10/05
9.2
96
10/12
1.9
64
10/20
-3.0
29
J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
12/29
4.9
79
01/05
-9.0
4
01/12
3.5
72
01/18
7.2
91
01/26
2.8
68
09/07
1.7
62
09/11
-2.7
31
10/05
2.0
64
10/13
3.1
73
10/19
-1.1
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Seahawks logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
28
29
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Commanders logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3

EPA

EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
7
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
7
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/26
3
W
L
U
01/05
5
W
L
O
09/07
-4
L
L
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
31
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
8
W
W
U
10/20
8
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/18
14
W
W
O
01/26
-32
L
L
O
09/07
15
W
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/21
17
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
O
10/05
17
W
W
U
10/13
-1
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U