SEASeahawks
5-2
38
TBD
FedExField
53°F
3 mph
14
WASCommanders
3-5
TBD
FedExField
53°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
24
7
0
38
Commanders
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
290
Total Plays
48
62
Yards / Play
8.7
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.45
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
133
Comp/Att
21/24(88%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.94
-0.06
Rushing Yards
88
157
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
64%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.98
-7.84
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.82
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
44
87
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-9.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+1.4
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-22.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
28
25
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
2
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
23
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U