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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ cowboys week 8, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
3-4
13
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
12
DALCowboys
2-4
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
7
0
3
13
Cowboys
3
3
3
3
12

Spread

DAL logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
323
220
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.3
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
91
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
13/26(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.5
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.31
Rushing Yards
113
129
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.02
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-0.29
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
40
Penalty EPA
-3.61
-1.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-151
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-102.1
Home QB Adjustment
-112.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
01/10
5.9
86
01/18
-9.9
3
02/01
1.3
60
09/13
-1.1
43
09/20
4.3
80
09/27
-1.2
42
10/05
-0.1
50
10/11
-3.6
25
10/18
1.3
60
10/22
-6.0
11
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-112.0
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.3
43
12/08
2.3
67
12/15
8.1
92
12/22
-11.2
2
12/29
-4.2
23
09/07
1.9
64
09/14
-13.2
0
09/21
-5.0
20
09/13
-5.9
11
10/25
-5.1
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
8
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
12
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Cowboys Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cowboys logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3

EPA

EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
5
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
29
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
14
W
W
O
01/18
6
W
L
O
02/01
-4
L
L
O
09/13
-3
L
L
O
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
26
W
W
U
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
P
O
10/18
-4
L
L
O
10/22
17
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
35
W
W
U
12/28
27
W
W
O
01/04
4
W
L
U
01/11
-5
L
W
U
09/13
1
W
L
O
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
-11
L
L
O
10/04
-6
L
L
U
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-7
L
L
O