SEASeahawks
6-4
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
6 mph
24
MIADolphins
4-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
7
7
7
21
Dolphins
0
7
0
17
24
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
435
Total Plays
56
55
Yards / Play
5.6
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.23
Passing Yards
216
246
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.18
Rushing Yards
96
189
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.00
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.00
-1.47
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-2.49
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
19
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U