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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ dolphins week 12, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
6-4
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
6 mph
24
MIADolphins
4-6
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
72°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
7
7
7
21
Dolphins
0
7
0
17
24

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
312
435
Total Plays
56
55
Yards / Play
5.6
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.23
Passing Yards
216
246
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.18
Rushing Yards
96
189
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.00
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.00
-1.47
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-2.49
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.3
16
09/16
0.8
55
09/24
0.1
50
09/30
-7.8
7
10/07
-2.5
33
10/14
4.3
77
10/18
-7.6
7
10/28
3.9
74
11/04
3.3
71
11/11
1.2
58
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
-7.8
6
09/16
2.8
68
09/23
-4.6
21
09/30
0.9
56
10/07
-1.9
37
10/14
2.5
65
10/28
-5.8
13
11/04
0.3
52
11/11
-8.2
5
11/15
-9.0
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Seahawks logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12

EPA

EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Dolphins logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
19
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
11
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-4
L
L
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/24
2
W
W
U
09/30
-6
L
L
U
10/07
4
W
W
U
10/14
1
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/28
-4
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
21
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-20
L
L
U
09/16
22
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-3
L
W
O
10/07
4
W
W
U
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/28
21
W
W
O
11/04
-3
L
L
U
11/11
-34
L
L
U
11/15
-5
L
L
U