SEASeahawks
12-5
28
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
030
ATLFalcons
13-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
7
21
28
Falcons
10
10
7
3
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
491
417
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
7.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.20
Passing Yards
368
--
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.23
Rushing Yards
123
167
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
24
Passing 1st downs
19
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.14
-6.18
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.67
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
35
11
Penalty EPA
-3.28
-1.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+114.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
+37.7
Market Regression
+11.6
Final Difference
26.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+37.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
10
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
5
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
15
7
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
5
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U