SEASeahawks
11-5
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
036
ATLFalcons
11-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
3
3
7
20
Falcons
0
17
7
10
34
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
422
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
208
323
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.44
Rushing Yards
101
99
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.60
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-15
Sack EPA
-3.44
-3.86
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-5.14
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+6.5
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+53.2
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+36.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
+29.8
Final Difference
135.1
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
15
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
9-1
O/U