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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ giants week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-1
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
8 mph
3
NYGGiants
1-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
7
1
3
18
Giants
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

SEA logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
281
248
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
5.5
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.46
Passing Yards
160
136
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.90
Rushing Yards
121
112
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.71
Sacks
2
11
Sack Yards
-13
-67
Sack EPA
-2.70
-20.95
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
74
45
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-3.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+20.1
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.3
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
12/04
4.2
82
12/11
-1.0
45
12/15
2.8
74
12/24
-3.1
27
01/01
-1.5
43
01/08
-1.7
41
01/14
2.7
73
09/10
-2.8
30
09/17
8.1
94
09/24
-1.2
42
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
12/04
4.2
81
12/11
1.8
67
12/18
-0.0
52
12/24
2.5
72
01/01
13.4
99
01/15
5.8
88
01/21
-7.7
7
09/10
-13.3
1
09/17
6.8
90
09/21
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Giants Defense
Seahawks logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
17
26
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
7
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
12
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Giants Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Giants logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
31

EPA

EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
29
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
15
19
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
31
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
4
W
L
O
12/11
-6
L
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-14
L
L
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
3
W
L
U
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-17
L
L
U
09/17
6
W
W
O
09/24
10
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-26
L
L
O
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/08
-6
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/21
-31
L
L
U
09/10
-40
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
O
09/21
-18
L
L
U