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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ giants week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-3
36
TBD
MetLife Stadium
81°F
4 mph
25
NYGGiants
3-1
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
81°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
14
0
0
14
28
Giants
7
7
0
11
25

Spread

SEA logo
+10

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
424
466
Total Plays
76
68
Yards / Play
5.6
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.20
Passing Yards
279
395
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.15
Rushing Yards
145
71
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-13.71
-23.29
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-36
-25
Sack EPA
-9.48
-7.45
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
70
52
Penalty EPA
-7.24
-5.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+263
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Jackson headshot

T. Jackson

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
09/14
-3.5
25
12/14
1.7
63
12/21
6.4
88
12/28
-0.8
46
01/04
-3.7
24
12/13
-8.8
6
09/11
-4.4
22
09/18
-4.0
25
09/25
-3.9
26
10/02
5.5
84
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
11/28
2.1
62
12/05
-3.8
25
12/13
-3.6
25
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
-1.9
37
01/02
0.2
50
09/11
-3.2
30
09/19
-2.3
34
09/25
5.0
81
10/02
6.3
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Giants Defense
Seahawks logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
28
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18

EPA

EPA / Play
25
24
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Giants Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Giants logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15

EPA

EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
26
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
9
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-19
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
-23
L
L
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
01/08
5
W
W
O
01/16
-11
L
L
O
09/11
-16
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-2
L
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
24
W
W
U
12/13
18
W
W
U
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/26
-28
L
L
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
09/11
-14
L
L
O
09/19
12
W
W
O
09/25
13
W
W
U
10/02
4
W
W
O