SEASeahawks
8-4
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
5 mph
30
JAXJaguars
8-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
10
14
24
Jaguars
3
0
21
6
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
424
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
7.0
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.02
Passing Yards
260
--
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.41
Rushing Yards
141
156
Rush Attempts
24
39
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
22%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.75
-5.58
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-3.76
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
73
48
Penalty EPA
-9.22
-6.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
-19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
26.7
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
19
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
4
4th Down Efficiency
7
24
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U