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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ lions week 2, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
0-1
37
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
31
DETLions
1-0
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Seahawks
7
0
10
8
6
31
Lions
7
7
7
10
0
31

Spread

SEA logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
393
418
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
5.9
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.03
Passing Yards
311
316
Comp/Att
32/41(78%)
28/35(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.17
Rushing Yards
82
102
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
28
25
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.79
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-1.76
-2.45
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
80
24
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-2.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+66.6
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.3
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-14.9
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
11/13
4.2
81
11/27
1.3
61
12/04
4.2
82
12/11
-1.0
45
12/15
2.8
74
12/24
-3.1
27
01/01
-1.5
43
01/08
-1.7
41
01/14
2.7
73
09/10
-2.8
30
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Value
Ptile
11/13
1.4
62
11/20
-1.8
38
11/24
2.5
73
12/04
5.1
85
12/11
8.2
94
12/18
2.5
73
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
4.9
84
01/08
0.9
58
09/07
-0.1
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Seahawks logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
18
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2

EPA

EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
15
9
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Lions logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31

EPA

EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
11
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
23
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
2
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-5
L
L
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/04
4
W
L
O
12/11
-6
L
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-14
L
L
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
3
W
L
U
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-17
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
1
W
W
O
11/20
13
W
W
O
11/24
-3
L
W
U
12/04
26
W
W
O
12/11
11
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
01/01
31
W
W
U
01/08
4
W
W
U
09/07
1
W
W
U