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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ packers week 1, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
-
9
TBD
Lambeau Field
71°F
11 mph
17
GBPackers
-
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
71°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
3
3
9
Packers
0
0
14
3
17

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
225
370
Total Plays
48
74
Yards / Play
4.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.02
Passing Yards
135
286
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.05
Rushing Yards
90
84
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-6.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-25
Sack EPA
-7.01
-6.07
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
50
70
Penalty EPA
+2.70
-3.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+68.0
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+21.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Value
Ptile
11/13
5.5
84
11/20
1.9
64
11/27
-9.3
3
12/04
1.5
60
12/11
-11.2
1
12/15
1.2
58
12/24
4.7
82
01/01
0.9
56
01/07
-0.2
47
01/14
-1.9
35
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
11/20
8.0
92
11/28
9.8
96
12/04
3.0
72
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-2.5
30
12/24
10.5
97
01/01
9.2
95
01/08
5.2
83
01/15
2.7
70
01/22
4.8
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
26
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18

EPA

EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
17
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20

EPA

EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
23
6
EPA / Rush
2
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
4
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
U
11/27
-9
L
L
U
12/04
33
W
W
O
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
21
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/07
20
W
W
U
01/14
-16
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-18
L
L
O
11/28
14
W
W
U
12/04
8
W
W
U
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
O
12/24
13
W
W
O
01/01
7
W
W
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
W
O
01/22
-23
L
L
O