SEASeahawks
5-9
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
18°F
5 mph
48
GBPackers
9-5
TBD
Lambeau Field
18°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
7
10
Packers
14
10
14
10
48
Spread
-13.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
417
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.2
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.39
Passing Yards
176
264
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.36
Rushing Yards
115
153
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
35%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
25%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.64
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-9
Sack EPA
-6.75
-2.31
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
86
50
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-4.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+338
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
-34.5
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
15
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
11
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
7
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U