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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ panthers week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
-
12
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
87°F
7 mph
7
CARPanthers
-
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
87°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
3
6
12
Panthers
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

SEA logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
370
253
Total Plays
62
50
Yards / Play
6.0
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.00
Passing Yards
300
119
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.17
Rushing Yards
70
134
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-0.69
-3.91
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-20
-6
Sack EPA
-4.28
-1.59
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
99
46
Penalty EPA
-5.74
-2.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model51.9%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-13.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
Value
Ptile
11/04
3.3
71
11/11
1.2
58
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
9.2
95
12/09
-1.2
40
12/16
11.9
98
12/23
5.4
83
12/30
3.8
73
01/06
-0.7
45
01/13
10.4
97
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Value
Ptile
10/28
-1.0
42
11/04
3.8
73
11/11
-7.3
9
11/18
0.2
51
11/26
9.6
96
12/02
7.4
91
12/09
15.3
100
12/16
0.6
54
12/23
1.2
58
12/30
-3.2
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3

EPA

EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
9
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7

EPA

EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
5
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
15
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
21
W
W
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
58
W
W
O
12/16
33
W
W
O
12/23
29
W
W
O
12/30
7
W
L
U
01/06
10
W
W
U
01/13
-2
L
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-1
L
W
O
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
-22
L
L
O
11/18
-6
L
L
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
24
W
W
U
12/23
11
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
O