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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ patriots week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
5-2
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
3 mph
24
NEPatriots
7-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
6
13
3
9
31
Patriots
7
7
7
3
24

Spread

SEA logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
420
385
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
6.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.14
Passing Yards
324
304
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.24
Rushing Yards
96
81
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
43%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.89
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-12
Sack EPA
-5.74
-2.59
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
60
61
Penalty EPA
-9.40
-7.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+43.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-31.2
Net QB Adjustment
+72.0
Home QB Adjustment
+70.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
01/10
-5.1
14
01/17
2.7
71
09/11
-1.7
35
09/18
-1.0
41
09/25
0.1
49
10/02
5.3
83
10/16
0.2
51
10/23
0.0
49
10/30
-2.7
28
11/07
5.0
83
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+70.9
Value
Ptile
12/13
2.2
66
12/20
1.8
63
12/27
-0.1
49
01/03
-6.1
11
01/16
9.9
97
01/24
-6.4
9
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
9.1
95
10/23
4.3
81
10/30
6.8
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3

EPA

EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
21
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
15
12
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
6

EPA

EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
16
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
14
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
8
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
1
W
L
U
01/17
-7
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
U
09/25
19
W
W
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
0
T
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/24
-2
L
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/22
27
W
W
U
10/02
-16
L
L
U
10/09
20
W
W
U
10/16
18
W
W
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
16
W
W
O