SEASeahawks
5-2
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
3 mph
24
NEPatriots
7-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
43°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
6
13
3
9
31
Patriots
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
385
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
6.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.14
Passing Yards
324
304
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.24
Rushing Yards
96
81
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
43%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.89
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-12
Sack EPA
-5.74
-2.59
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
60
61
Penalty EPA
-9.40
-7.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,684
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+72.0
Home QB Adjustment
+70.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+70.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
15
12
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
14
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-3-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U