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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ rams week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-0
3
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
88°F
3 mph
9
LARRams
0-1
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
88°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
0
3
Rams
3
3
0
3
9

Spread

LAR logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
306
283
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
239
219
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.05
Rushing Yards
67
64
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.18
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-20
Sack EPA
-2.17
-5.58
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
114
78
Penalty EPA
-10.43
-8.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.4
Home QB Adjustment
-24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+9.0
Final Difference
-114.7
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
11/22
6.8
90
11/29
9.7
96
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
10.9
98
12/20
7.2
92
12/27
0.2
51
01/03
4.5
81
01/10
-5.1
14
01/17
2.7
71
09/11
-1.7
35
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-24.7
Value
Ptile
12/05
-3.3
29
12/15
-11.3
2
12/21
-4.6
22
12/28
0.7
54
11/22
-5.0
15
12/13
-6.3
10
12/17
1.3
60
12/27
-1.4
40
01/03
-0.8
46
09/12
-10.4
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
15
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16

EPA

EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
21
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
6
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6

EPA

EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
31
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
16
23
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
24
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
16
W
W
O
11/29
9
W
W
O
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
U
01/03
30
W
W
U
01/10
1
W
L
U
01/17
-7
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-3
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U
12/06
-24
L
L
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/12
-28
L
L
U