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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ rams week 4, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-1
3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
20
LARRams
1-2
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
3
0
0
3
Rams
7
3
7
3
20

Spread

LAR logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
257
349
Total Plays
65
73
Yards / Play
4.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.14
Passing Yards
193
261
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.12
Rushing Yards
64
88
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.08
-6.34
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-28
Sack EPA
-9.28
-7.61
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
49
41
Penalty EPA
-3.73
-0.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
0.2
51
11/29
-3.2
30
12/06
2.0
64
12/13
-0.9
44
12/20
-4.8
21
12/27
-9.2
4
01/03
-5.8
15
09/12
4.5
80
09/19
-0.8
44
09/26
-2.2
35
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.0
18
09/19
-2.8
30
09/26
-0.4
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
24
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
31
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-26
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
-27
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-38
L
L
O
01/03
-4
L
W
U
09/12
25
W
W
P
09/19
-17
L
L
O
09/26
7
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-8
L
W
U
11/29
-10
L
L
O
12/06
-8
L
W
U
12/13
-40
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
W
U
12/27
-21
L
L
U
01/03
-22
L
L
U
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
W
U
09/26
14
W
W
O