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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ rams week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-1
13
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
19
LARRams
1-2
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
0
3
3
13
Rams
3
10
3
3
19

Spread

LAR logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
319
286
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
140
211
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.11
Rushing Yards
179
75
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.53
-4.65
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-12
Sack EPA
-2.38
-2.97
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
55
37
Penalty EPA
+1.00
-3.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,337
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
-17.2
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.3
16
09/16
0.8
55
09/24
0.1
50
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
10/02
-9.7
2
10/16
-0.4
49
11/06
-4.2
24
11/13
-2.2
35
11/20
-8.9
3
11/27
-1.3
43
12/12
-8.1
5
09/09
-2.8
32
09/16
6.2
88
09/23
-11.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
5
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
11

EPA

EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
22
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
19
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
17
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/01
17
W
W
O
12/12
17
W
W
O
12/18
24
W
W
O
12/24
-2
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
L
O
09/09
-4
L
L
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/24
2
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-17
L
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
-26
L
L
U
12/12
-17
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
P
U
12/24
-27
L
L
U
01/01
-7
L
W
O
09/09
-4
L
W
O
09/16
3
W
W
O
09/23
-17
L
L
U