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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ rams week 18, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
9-7
30
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
25
LARRams
10-6
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
10
7
6
30
Rams
3
10
3
9
25

Spread

LAR logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
336
403
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.12
Passing Yards
210
319
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.05
Rushing Yards
126
84
Rush Attempts
24
21
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
55%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.51
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-15
Sack EPA
-3.50
-5.89
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
23
10
Penalty EPA
-2.54
-1.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.4%
Cover Probability
61.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.6
Home QB Adjustment
-35.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
-105.5
Final Difference
-115.4
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
10/20
1.1
57
10/27
-0.1
48
11/03
-5.0
16
11/17
1.1
56
11/24
-4.5
19
12/01
-0.6
45
12/08
3.6
73
12/15
-5.9
12
12/22
3.7
74
12/26
-2.7
30
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-35.3
Value
Ptile
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88
11/27
2.3
71
12/04
-7.0
9
09/10
2.3
65
09/17
-1.9
36
09/24
-2.7
31
10/09
-2.5
32
10/15
-1.1
42
10/30
-12.9
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28

EPA

EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
21
13
EPA / Rush
18
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16

EPA

EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
27
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
25
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
20
W
W
U
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
W
U
11/24
10
W
W
U
12/01
5
W
W
O
12/08
12
W
W
O
12/15
-17
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/26
3
W
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
10
W
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
U
11/11
-8
L
L
U
11/17
6
W
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/12
6
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/28
4
W
L
U