SEASeahawks
5-4
19
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
034
NOSaints
6-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
13
0
3
19
Saints
7
20
7
0
34
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
494
Total Plays
61
72
Yards / Play
7.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.26
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
32/44(73%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.51
Rushing Yards
58
112
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.55
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
58%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.51
-6.54
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
79
--
Penalty EPA
-7.19
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+297
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-32.4
Final Difference
267.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
20
32
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
21
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U