SEASeahawks
3-0
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
2-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Seahawks
3
0
3
8
3
17
Texans
0
20
0
0
0
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
476
Total Plays
58
88
Yards / Play
4.7
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.13
Passing Yards
91
325
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
31/49(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.11
Rushing Yards
179
151
Rush Attempts
30
35
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
6
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
21%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.11
-17.99
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-32
-30
Sack EPA
-6.61
-5.15
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
62
86
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-8.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
+19.3
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
17
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Texans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
22
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
26
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U