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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ vikings week 18, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
10-6
10
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
-6°F
12 mph
9
MINVikings
11-5
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
-6°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
0
10
10
Vikings
3
0
6
0
9

Spread

MIN logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
226
183
Total Plays
56
56
Yards / Play
4.0
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.31
Passing Yards
129
125
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.35
Rushing Yards
97
58
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
13
14
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.05
-4.25
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-21
Sack EPA
-2.86
-5.13
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
65
--
Penalty EPA
-5.60
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model62.3%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,652
Home Field
+80.5
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+31.1
Market Regression
+4.2
Final Difference
-87.5
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.1
Value
Ptile
10/22
-6.0
11
11/01
0.7
55
11/15
-1.1
43
11/22
6.8
90
11/29
9.7
96
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
10.9
98
12/20
7.2
92
12/27
0.2
51
01/03
4.5
81
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Value
Ptile
11/01
-2.6
31
11/08
-0.7
47
11/15
-3.8
23
11/22
1.1
58
11/29
-2.8
30
12/06
-8.9
3
12/10
3.3
75
12/20
9.6
96
12/27
-4.8
16
01/03
-9.1
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
17

EPA

EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
12
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3

EPA

EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
4
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
5
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
25
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
17
W
W
U
11/01
1
W
L
U
11/15
-7
L
L
O
11/22
16
W
W
O
11/29
9
W
W
O
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
U
01/03
30
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
U
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
-17
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
7
W
W
U