PITSteelers
1-0
14
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
13 mph
17
CHIBears
0-1
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
0
7
0
14
Bears
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
275
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.12
Passing Yards
203
232
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.25
Rushing Yards
105
43
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.56
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-4
Sack EPA
-3.84
-1.29
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
52
80
Penalty EPA
-5.96
-4.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
14
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
21
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
0-1-9
O/U