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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
0-1
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
5 mph
20
CINBengals
0-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
7
0
0
10
Bengals
7
3
7
3
20

Spread

CIN logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
278
407
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
5.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
234
--
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.09
Rushing Yards
44
127
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.45
--
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
29
84
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-8.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+2.4
Final Difference
136.6
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
10/11
2.7
67
10/21
0.6
54
10/28
6.4
88
11/04
-2.0
35
11/12
-2.8
31
12/09
2.4
64
12/16
0.1
51
12/23
-6.6
11
12/30
0.3
51
09/08
-5.5
17
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
11/11
6.9
90
11/18
4.5
79
11/25
-0.1
49
12/02
-0.6
46
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8

EPA

EPA / Play
18
3
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
29
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
20
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
24
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
1
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
4
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
U
11/25
-6
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
-10
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
O
12/23
-3
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
18
W
W
U
11/18
22
W
W
U
11/25
24
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O