PITSteelers
0-1
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
5 mph
20
CINBengals
0-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
62°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
7
0
0
10
Bengals
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
407
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
5.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
234
--
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.09
Rushing Yards
44
127
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.45
--
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
29
84
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-8.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
137.3
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
3
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
24
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-8
O/U