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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bengals week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-1
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
9 mph
23
CINBengals
1-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
3
7
0
20
Bengals
0
3
0
14
17

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
373
275
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
6.2
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
271
175
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.01
Rushing Yards
102
100
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.38
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-10
Sack EPA
-1.64
-2.30
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-4.35
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model63.3%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
+25.3
Final Difference
-94.6
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
11/30
-1.6
40
12/07
-3.3
26
12/14
1.6
63
12/21
0.6
56
12/28
-3.6
24
01/11
0.0
52
01/18
-1.8
38
02/01
-0.9
46
09/10
2.7
67
09/20
1.7
61
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Value
Ptile
12/09
-2.4
34
12/15
3.1
72
12/23
-4.8
19
12/30
8.3
93
09/07
-7.9
6
09/14
-5.3
13
09/21
1.9
65
10/05
0.1
53
09/13
-4.9
21
09/20
1.9
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
14
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
19
32
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
21
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
23
W
W
P
12/07
7
W
W
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/11
11
W
W
P
01/18
9
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
L
P
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/20
-3
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
2
W
W
P
11/16
0
T
W
P
11/20
-17
L
L
P
11/30
-31
L
L
P
12/07
-32
L
L
P
12/14
7
W
W
P
12/21
14
W
W
P
12/28
10
W
W
P
09/13
-5
L
L
U
09/20
7
W
W
O