PITSteelers
1-1
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
9 mph
23
CINBengals
1-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
10
3
7
0
20
Bengals
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
275
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
6.2
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
271
175
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.01
Rushing Yards
102
100
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.38
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-10
Sack EPA
-1.64
-2.30
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-4.35
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model63.3%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.0
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-138
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
+25.0
Final Difference
-94.9
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
19
32
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Bengals
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
1-1-8
O/U