PITSteelers
6-4
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
9 mph
10
CINBengals
5-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
6
16
Bengals
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
222
Total Plays
68
41
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.17
Passing Yards
268
197
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.11
Rushing Yards
153
25
Rush Attempts
33
11
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.63
-4.36
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-30
Sack EPA
-2.30
-7.51
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
55
36
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-4.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+5.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-92.1
Home QB Adjustment
-111.8
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
-90.9
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-111.8
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
23
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U