PITSteelers
1-3
3
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
038
BUFBills
3-1
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
0
0
3
Bills
10
21
0
7
38
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
552
Total Plays
72
54
Yards / Play
5.1
10.2
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.26
Passing Yards
310
--
Comp/Att
34/52(65%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.38
Rushing Yards
54
120
Rush Attempts
17
18
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
19
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.65
-12.55
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.50
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
54
28
Penalty EPA
-6.89
-3.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model89.2%
Spread Pick
Bills-14.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+401
Home nfelo
1,685
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
-39.9
Market Regression
+0.3
Final Difference
366.4
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-39.9
No recent game data available
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
23
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
11
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
17
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
2
11
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
5
29
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U