PITSteelers
5-2
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph
10
DENBroncos
6-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
1
7
14
22
Broncos
3
0
1
0
4
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
242
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
6.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.36
Passing Yards
202
215
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.36
Rushing Yards
173
27
Rush Attempts
29
14
Yards / Rush
6.0
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
58%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.15
-14.02
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-31
-6
Sack EPA
-14.06
-2.02
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
28
25
Penalty EPA
-1.14
+3.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
18
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
1-6-3
O/U