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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ broncos week 9, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
5-2
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph
10
DENBroncos
6-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
1
7
14
22
Broncos
3
0
1
0
4

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
375
242
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
6.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.36
Passing Yards
202
215
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.36
Rushing Yards
173
27
Rush Attempts
29
14
Yards / Rush
6.0
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
58%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.15
-14.02
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-31
-6
Sack EPA
-14.06
-2.02
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
28
25
Penalty EPA
-1.14
+3.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
01/11
0.0
52
01/18
-1.8
38
02/01
-0.9
46
09/10
2.7
67
09/20
1.7
61
09/27
4.7
80
10/04
6.4
87
10/11
2.1
64
10/18
5.2
83
10/25
-3.4
28
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
12/11
-3.5
25
12/22
-7.7
7
12/28
3.8
77
09/13
-0.0
49
09/20
2.2
65
09/27
0.6
54
10/04
2.5
66
10/11
6.0
86
10/19
4.2
77
11/01
-1.6
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Steelers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26

EPA

EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Broncos logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5

EPA

EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
18
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
22
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
11
W
W
P
01/18
9
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
L
P
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
10
W
W
O
10/11
8
W
L
O
10/18
13
W
L
O
10/25
10
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
1-6-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
5
W
W
U
09/20
21
W
W
U
09/27
20
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/19
11
W
W
O
11/01
-23
L
L
U