PITSteelers
-
21
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
11 mph
21
CLEBrowns
-
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
7
14
0
21
Browns
0
0
7
14
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
472
327
Total Plays
80
85
Yards / Play
5.9
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.26
Passing Yards
313
150
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
15/40(38%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.46
Rushing Yards
159
177
Rush Attempts
35
38
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
17
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
47%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-26.21
-1.35
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-22
-47
Sack EPA
-10.90
-8.14
Penalties
12
11
Penalty Yards
116
87
Penalty EPA
-12.28
-7.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-163
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+30.9
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
+33.2
Final Difference
-125.8
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
18
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U