PITSteelers
3-2
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
13 mph
31
CLEBrowns
2-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
0
7
10
Browns
0
21
3
7
31
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
368
Total Plays
76
56
Yards / Play
4.7
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.14
Passing Yards
221
210
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
12.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.46
Rushing Yards
138
158
Rush Attempts
32
38
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.79
-4.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-2.21
-1.81
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-6.70
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model49.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
-7.1
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
19
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
7-3
O/U