PITSteelers
6-3
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
11 mph
13
CLEBrowns
6-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
3
10
Browns
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
249
259
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
4.4
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.17
Passing Yards
77
163
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.23
Rushing Yards
172
96
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
21%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.61
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-2
Sack EPA
-5.58
-0.79
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-6.17
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+24.3
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.7
Home QB Adjustment
-77.8
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
-21.6
Final Difference
35.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
D. Thompson-Robinson
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-77.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
20
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U