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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 11, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-3
10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
11 mph
13
CLEBrowns
6-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
7
3
10
Browns
7
3
0
3
13

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
34

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
249
259
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
4.4
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.17
Passing Yards
77
163
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.23
Rushing Yards
172
96
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
21%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.61
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-2
Sack EPA
-5.58
-0.79
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-6.17
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+24.2
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-62.8
Home QB Adjustment
-78.7
Away QB Adjustment
-15.9
Market Regression
-21.5
Final Difference
35.7
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Value
Ptile
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18
11/02
-0.2
47
11/12
-2.9
29
D. Thompson-Robinson headshot

D. Thompson-Robinson

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-78.7
Value
Ptile
10/01
-12.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
20
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21

EPA

EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
23
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
15
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-10
L
L
U
11/02
4
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-14
L
L
O
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
11/12
2
W
W
O