PITSteelers
4-6
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
20°F
31 mph
11
CLEBrowns
4-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
20°F
31 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
10
7
1
21
Browns
3
0
0
8
11
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
369
Total Plays
68
74
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
314
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
27/53(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.37
Rushing Yards
85
55
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-23.16
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-15.95
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
8
--
Penalty EPA
-1.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model51.5%
Spread Pick
Steelers+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+2.0
Final Difference
10.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
16
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
14
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
17
RZ Efficiency
22
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U