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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ browns week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
4-6
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
20°F
31 mph
11
CLEBrowns
4-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
20°F
31 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
10
7
1
21
Browns
3
0
0
8
11

Spread

PIT logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
302
369
Total Plays
68
74
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
314
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
27/53(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.37
Rushing Yards
85
55
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-23.16
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-15.95
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
8
--
Penalty EPA
-1.27
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model51.6%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+2.7
Final Difference
11.5
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-5.5
17
09/16
-1.6
42
09/22
2.6
68
09/29
0.9
56
10/13
3.2
72
10/20
0.5
54
10/27
-5.6
17
11/03
2.0
63
11/10
-4.6
21
11/17
9.5
95
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Value
Ptile
09/12
-0.9
45
09/18
8.4
95
09/25
0.4
55
10/02
3.6
75
10/09
-5.1
18
10/16
-2.4
34
11/19
-9.2
3
10/27
6.2
87
11/03
6.1
87
11/17
-9.6
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
16
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
14
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
17
RZ Efficiency
22
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-17
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/13
13
W
W
U
10/20
3
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
O
11/10
13
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-13
L
L
U
09/15
-8
L
L
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
11
W
W
U
10/03
13
W
W
O
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-6
L
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O